Why I Bought 2 Homebuilders

Why I Bought 2 Homebuilders

February 11, 2019 Off By administrator

My December double-down saw a good January

At the bottom of this article, I share an update of my stock portfolio. Each position’s cost basis and relative weight are shown, but not its value, as I have done before here and here. I also list my sales, although I’ve only sold three stocks in the 5.8 years since I first bought Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) (the labeled “Held” shows the weighted average number of years since purchase). I’d welcome any feedback as I am always trying to improve my game, albeit as a part-timer!

In December and January, I added introductory positions (~2.0% of portfolio) in two REITs: CyrusOne (CONE) and Ventas (VTR). Ventas just reported Friday, saying it “expects 2019 to be a pivot year and its transition back to growth.” Ventas is a safe, high-quality REIT (senior housing, triple-net and office, including a smart focus on university-based research) temporarily suffering from the senior housing market’s overbuild, but for which it is well-positioned beyond the current cycle. My forward dividend yield is 5.50% ($3.17 ÷ my cost of $57.16), and the current dividend yield is 4.93%. Five REITs now comprise ~9.1% of my portfolio (AMH, CONE, DOC, INVH, and VTR). To help make REIT decisions, I am highly influenced by Brad Thomas’ newsletter and his SA articles. I am also influenced by Hoya Capital Real Estate (who is great at summarizing the top reasons to be bearish/bullish and REIT sectors, as in Single-Family REITs) and by Colorado Wealth Management Fund (e.g., Why Own When You Can Rent).

In addition to the REITs, I decided to take advantage of December’s sell-off by increasing my housing-related exposure. This was part of a larger bet in which I added several names from my watchlists, mostly due to favorable or better valuations. Valuation is my first criteria; I don’t generally own anything that I fear is too expensive. Except a few of my gains are unexpected, so I’ve tagged them for evaluation. My Tech Turtle portfolio is 50.0% allocated to technology (where I am most comfortable), but with respect to just the housing-related names, I added:

  • A new position in Redfin (RDFN) on 12/3, a technology company somewhat disguised as a real estate company.
  • A new position in American Homes 4 Rent. I already held Invitation Homes and, liking the risk/reward profile of single-family rental (SFR) theme over the long-term, decided to cover both bases rather than sweat pros/cons between two category leaders.
  • A third purchase of Lennar (LEN), where I started to buck momentum maybe a bit early when I bought the first tranche in May 2018. I previously wrote why I like Lennar. Since then, I’ve added to the position twice, lowering my cost basis, and am surprised to be treading water given its slow descent during all of 2018. In early January, management committed a cardinal sin and deferred fiscal 2019 guidance “due to continued softness and uncertainty.” I view the subsequent, counter-intuitive +10.0% stock price increase as more evidence that…

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